As expected, Iraq has forthwith declared state of war on Kurdistan amongst the stated state of war destination of seizing command of the oil-rich metropolis of Kirkuk.
Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein inwards 2003, the nation of Republic of Iraq has been divided into a self-ruling Kurdish territory inwards the North, which has at to the lowest degree technically remained business office of Iraq, as well as the Shiite-dominated Arab bulk, amongst occasional flare-ups of Sunni Arab insurgency, around notably inwards the shape of ISIS, which soundless controls parts of Northern Iraq.
Under the influence of the USA, these 2 parts of Republic of Iraq -- the Shiite as well as the Kurdish -- possess got peacefully coexisted inwards what was an awkward compromise, aimed at maximizing crude profits as well as minimizing geopolitical problems caused past times the long-suppressed Kurdish force for independence as well as the fact that America had unwittingly created an Iraqi nation that felt a potent affinity for Iran.
In recent days, however, this condition quo has quickly eroded, amongst the ebbing of the threat of ISIS, which lost command of Mosul before this twelvemonth as well as has faced farther setbacks, as well as a ISIS forces agreeing to hold upward bussed out to ISIS territory farther east.
Another telephone substitution gene inwards the introduce conflict was the recent eradication of a steal of ISIS-controlled territory southward of Kirkuk that effectively served every bit a buffer zone betwixt Kurdish as well as Iraqi forces. Now, amongst Iraqi forces some Kirkuk as well as bolstered past times their recent victory over ISIS, the temptation to seize Kirkuk has boot the bucket likewise strong.
But the Kurdish forces must non hold upward underestimated. In recent years a lucrative crude bargain amongst Exxon has given them ample resources to arm as well as equip their forces amongst modern weapons, including large numbers of tanks. Also, questions stay over what purpose Iraq's Sunni Muslims volition play inwards this conflict. Could the Kurds fifty-fifty respect mutual motility amongst ISIS inwards their introduce struggle? That is a possibility that can't hold upward ruled out.
But whichever way this plays out, it looks similar a definite lose-lose province of affairs for the US.
Formerly America tried to ally amongst Sunni Arab elements inwards Syrian Arab Republic -- cue those famous pictures of "Mad Dog" McCain amongst the hand brass of ISIS -- but ISIS's colourful PR activities essentially made this pick toxic, forcing Uncle Sam to rely increasingly on the Kurds every bit their primary allies as well as proxies inwards Syria, land also tacitly supporting them inwards Iraq.
This basically way that if the Kurds lose inwards Iraq, American ability as well as prestige inwards the portion takes a hefty hit. But fifty-fifty if the Kurds succeed, America soundless loses. This is because this would exclusively strengthen the "Shiite alliance" of Iran, Republic of Iraq as well as Syria, where President Assad is forthwith clearly dominant, land also pushing onetime U.S. ally Turkey onto their side. In a weird mirror prototype of Castilian as well as European Union attitudes to Catalan independence, these countries possess got extremely potent vested interests inwards continuing to brand Kurdish independence every bit uncomfortable every bit possible.
Also, if the Kurds ally amongst Sunni Arabs, which, given the forces arrayed against them on the ground, is quite a possibility, this volition effectively meet U.S. allies lining upward amongst ISIS, something that unusual policy wonks as well as a bloviating President volition possess got a difficult fourth dimension explaining to Joe Public.
America, it seems, is non good equipped to exercise realpolitik anymore.